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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-06-14 04:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140238 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Cristina's inner core convection has become somewhat better organized and colder than six hours ago. The eye is also slightly better defined and warmer, though it was cloud-filled in last-light visible images. A 0045 UTC SSMIS overpass revealed that a new inner eyewall had developed but was partially open to the southwest. Although Dvorak CI- and Final-T numbers were a consensus 4.5/77 kt at 00z, the initial intensity is kept at 80 kt, owing to the slight increase in organization of the the cloud pattern since the last advisory. Despite the recent uptick in organization, gradual weakening is indicated by the intensity guidance during the day or two as Cristina encounters increasing southwesterly shear and moves over cooler waters. Rapid weakening is likely by 48 hours, when the cyclone reaches a hostile environment of sea surface temperatures lower than 25C, greater than 20 kt of southwesterly shear, and a substantially drier and more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one except to show remnant low status a day sooner. The initial motion estimate is 310/06. Global models show Cristina being steered around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico in the short term. This feature is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days as a longwave trough becomes established over the western United States and extreme northern Mexico. This pattern should cause the forward speed of the cyclone to decrease while the the circulation weakens and becomes more shallow. The shallow vortex should turn westward by 72 hours and move little as it becomes embedded in region of weak low-level steering. Given the good model agreement, the NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and very near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.9N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 19.3N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 20.1N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z 21.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z 21.2N 118.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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