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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-06-11 16:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111452 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 After an overnight period of strengthening, conventional and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Cristina's intensity has leveled off. Recent SSMI/S and TRMM overpasses indicated a low- level eye feature, but the mid-level eye is no longer evident. The cyclone again appears to have ingested dry mid-level air, which has eroded the convection in the western semicircle. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based on consensus Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB. After a brief jog to the west-southwest, Cristina appears to have resumed a westerly motion of 275/05 kt. Other than to make just a tad right-of-track adjustment due to the initial position, the NHC official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track. Cristina is expected to move westward today, followed by a west-northwestward motion around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge in the 24- to 72-hour period, a scenario which most of the reliable models strongly agree on. After that, however, the models diverge significantly with the GFS, GFS Ensemble, NAVGEM, HWRF, and GFDL models taking a stronger Cristina more northward, whereas the ECMWF and UKMET weaken the cyclone fairly quickly and move it more westward. Given that the official intensity forecast is calling for a weaker and smaller tropical cyclone by 96 and 120 hours, the official forecast at those times is roughly an average of the ECMWF and GFS models, which shows a weaker and more vertically shallow cyclone moving west-northward to westward. Cristina has consistently been intensifying at night during the convective maximum period, which seems likely to continue for another 24-48 hours. However, the cyclone will still be battling occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air for the remainder of the forecast period, especially after 72 hours, so only gradual intensification is expected. After day 3, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and SSTs cooler than 26C are expected to induce steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.4N 104.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 15.7N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 16.2N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 16.9N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 19.5N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 19.9N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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