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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-06-11 22:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 112038 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 An intermittent eye feature has been noted in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery today, and Dvorak intensity estimates have steadily increased as a result. However, a 1653 UTC AMSU pass indicated that the 15-20 nmi diameter eyewall was open to the east and that it was completely detached from any convective bands, suggesting that the hurricane is probably not quite as strong as the T4.5 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are indicating. Therefore, the initial intensity estimate is set to 70 kt. Cristina is now moving at a fairly steady motion of 280/05 kt. The model guidance remains consistent on the hurricane moving westward through tonight, followed by a west-northwestward motion beginning on Thursday and continuing through 72 hours. After that, a weakening Cristina is forecast to turn more westward as the cyclone gradually becomes more vertically shallow as it encounters unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and gets steered by the low-level easterly flow on the south side of broad ridge of high pressure. Although the new model tracks still diverge significantly at Days 4 and 5, the GFS and GFS-Ensemble models have nudged their tracks a little farther west and closer to the previous NHC forecast. As a result, the official forecast track is similar to the previous one, and remains a little to the left of the consensus model TCVE due to the right-bias of the GFDL-member. Intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air should continue to interrupt the development of persistent eyewall convection for the next 36 hours or so. However, given that Cristina will still be over near 29C SSTs and in an extremely low shear environment, those conditions should allow for at least gradual strengthening during that time. Around 72 hours or so, environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, which should combine to produce steady weakening, especially by 96 hours and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 15.6N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 16.6N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 18.1N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.1N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 19.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 19.9N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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