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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-06-27 10:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Over the past several hours, the satellite presentation of Dora has degraded with cooling eye temperatures and breaks in the eyewall convection noted in the northwestern quadrant. Dvorak estimates are dropping and support a wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory. Dora is moving into cooler waters and a drier airmass, which should cause steady weakening over the next couple of days. Model guidance has come into better agreement on Dora becoming a tropical storm later today and a tropical depression by Thursday. The NHC intensity prediction is on the low side of the guidance since ASCAT confirmed Dora is a rather small tropical cyclone, and these types of systems are known to disappear rather quickly in the cold eastern Pacific waters. It would not be surprising if Dora dissipated faster than shown below. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A large deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally westward in the low-level flow before opening up into a trough by day 4. Guidance has shifted slightly northward during this cycle, perhaps due to a deeper model representation of Dora at the current time. The new NHC track forecast reflects that trend and lies a bit north of the previous one, close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.8N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.8N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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