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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-09 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090842 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 Although it hasn't cleared out entirely, an eye has persisted in infrared satellite imagery since the last advisory, and cloud tops colder than -70C have at times completely encircled the eye. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77 kt and T5.0/90 kt, respectively, at 0600 UTC, and an average of these numbers was mirrored by an objective ADT estimate of T4.8/85 kt. Eugene's rapid intensification phase continues, and the hurricane is now estimated to be category 2 with 85-kt winds. Eugene continues on a northwestward trajectory with an initial motion of 325/7 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging is expected to remain anchored over the western United States for a few more days, while a progressive shortwave trough approaches the coast of California. This pattern should keep Eugene on a northwestward path for the entire five-day forecast period, with a faster forward speed anticipated from 12-36 hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, especially through 72 hours, and the NHC official forecast has been nudged westward toward the various consensus models. By the end of the forecast period, the official forecast favors the weaker, westward-leaning GFS and ECMWF models. Eugene has blown through all prior intensity guidance, so it's a little difficult to know how long this period of rapid intensification will last. The hurricane is expected to remain in a low-shear environment for much of the forecast period, and it will continue to traverse waters warmer than 26C for another 24-36 hours. Therefore, continued strengthening is likely, and Eugene could attain major hurricane intensity before it reaches colder water. The new NHC intensity forecast has been bumped upward and continues to be at the upper bound of the intensity models, closest to the SHIPS guidance through 36 hours. Weakening should be rather fast after 36 hours as Eugene moves over quickly decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will cease producing deep convection by 96 hours. At that point in the forecast Eugene is expected to be a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.3N 121.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 26.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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