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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-07-09 16:56:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091456 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 Eugene's eye is becoming more distinct this morning and cold cloud tops in the eyewall are wrapping more symmetrically around the center of the hurricane. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have increased, suggesting around 90 kt at 12Z. In the last couple of hours, Eugene's convective structure continues to improve and the objective Advanced Dvorak Technique currently indicates a substantially higher intensity. A blend of these estimates gives 100 kt at advisory time and Eugene is now a major hurricane. However, Eugene will be moving from warm to very cool SST, so it is likely that the hurricane will be peaking very soon. Steady to rapid weakening should ensue on Monday due to the hurricane ingesting dry and stable air into its inner core. It is anticipated that the system will lose its deep convection in about three days - if not sooner - and no longer be considered a tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is slightly lower than indicated in the previous advisory, and is based upon a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM statistical models and the COAMPS-TC dynamical guidance. Eugene has sped up some and is now moving toward the north-northwest at about 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving in the same general direction and speed during the next 36 hours or so, due to the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge over the southwestern United States. As Eugene weakens, it should be steered toward the west-northwest at a slower rate of speed by the lower tropospheric tradewinds. The official track forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique through three days and upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models thereafter. This track prediction is very similar to that from the previous advisory, except slightly more to the west at days four and five. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.0N 114.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 115.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.8N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.3N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 23.6N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 25.3N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 26.5N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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