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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 62
2018-10-11 22:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 112048 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Leslie's inner-core structure has improved a little during the day today. A ragged banding eye was present in visible imagery until sunset, though this feature is not apparent in IR imagery. Recent satellite intensity estimates range from 65 kt to 90 kt, so Leslie's intensity has been raised to 75 kt as a compromise of all available estimates. Leslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 065/18 kt. Confidence remains high that Leslie will continue gaining speed on that heading for the next 24 h or so. Beyond that time, the ensemble spread is still very high, though the 12Z deterministic global models are generally in agreement that Leslie will separate from a mid-level trough, slow down, and turn southward over the weekend. While the exact timing of this turn is still highly uncertain, the multi-model consensus brings Leslie near Madeira Island on Saturday as a tropical storm. The new official forecast shows a very similar track, and the government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that island. While the exact path of Leslie is still uncertain, the cyclone is still expected to produce tropical storm conditions over a wide area through Saturday, and interests on Madeira should not focus on the exact track of Leslie. No large changes in intensity are anticipated during the next 24 h, though some fluctuations are possible, up or down. By 36 h, Leslie will reach much cooler waters and encounter an increase in wind shear which should lead to steady weakening. The intensity guidance is in surprisingly good agreement given the continued large track spread, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope from 36 h onward. By 96 h, odds are increasing that Leslie could lose all of its convection and become post-tropical, though this possibility still depends heavily on Leslie following a track similar to the NHC official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 29.9N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 31.0N 33.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 32.5N 27.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 33.3N 21.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 17.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 30.9N 16.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 29.0N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 16/1800Z 28.0N 24.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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