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Hurricane Michael Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-10-09 10:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090857 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few hours ago indicate that Michael's strengthening has paused, with the maximum winds near 80 kt and a central pressure near 973 mb. The aircraft also reported that the eyewall had become less organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment and shear. The latest satellite imagery shows the convective banding becoming better defined, and the next aircraft will shortly arrive in the hurricane to provide better information on whether intensification has resumed. The initial motion is now 345/10. There is little change in either the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Michael expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge centered off of the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude mid-latitude trough over the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico. This pattern should steer the hurricane north-northwestward to northward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn to the northeast as Michael recurves into the westerlies. Only minor tweaks have been made to the previous forecast track, with Michael expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and cross the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. The large-scale models continue to forecast a decrease in the shear later today, and thus Michael is forecast to intensify further before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in showing Michael as a category 3 hurricane at landfall. The cyclone should weaken significantly as it crosses the southeastern United States, then it should re-intensify over the western Atlantic as it undergoes extratropical transition between 72-96 h. It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track, intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for parts of this area. The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be assimilated into the 1200 UTC numerical models runs. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by their local officials. 2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael. Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia and South Carolina. 4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba for a few more hours. 5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 24.1N 85.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 32.3N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 13/0600Z 42.5N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 49.0N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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