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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-10-04 16:49:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041448 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 Infrared satellite imagery indicates that Simon has undergone rapid intensification during the past several hours. A small eye has formed, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye are in the -75C to -85C range. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 102 kt from TAFB and 90 kt from SAB, and the latest estimated from the CIMSS ADT is 90 kt. Based on these, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt, and this could be conservative. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Simon later today. The initial motion is now 295/11. Simon is expected to move west-northwest to northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as is approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north. After that, the system is expected to turn northward and northeastward, although there remains significant spread in the track guidance on when and how fast this will occur. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, NAVGEM, and the GFDL show Simon moving quickly to the northeast, eventually making landfall on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models show the turn occurring later and farther west, and these models forecast the cyclone to dissipate over water west of the Baja California peninsula. The forecast track continues to compromise between these two extremes in showing a slow northeastward motion after recurvature. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and is slower than the model consensus. How long the current rapid intensification will continue is uncertain, as Simon is now moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new intensity forecast follows the guidance trend of showing 12 hours more strengthening. Simon is now forecast to become a major hurricane, and it would not be a surprise if it reached a higher peak intensity than currently forecast. After 12 hours, cooler waters under the forecast track should result in a weakening trend, and this should become more pronounced after 48 hours due to increasing shear. The new intensity forecast shows rapid weakening after 48 hours, with Simon expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. It should be noted that, if Simon follows the GFS forecast track, it would likely weaken more slowly than currently forecast since it would stay over warmer water and encounters less shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.2N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 115.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.2N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 23.1N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 23.7N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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