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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-10-05 04:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050232 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 After the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft left Simon earlier today, satellite images revealed that the eye became quite distinct and surrounded by very deep convection. Dvorak subjective and objective numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS jumped to T6.0 on the Dvorak scale. Based on this data, the initial intensity was adjusted upward to 115 kt. This makes Simon the 6th Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale this season. Simon reached 115 kt just before entering a region of cool waters, and as we speak, a portion of the circulation is already doing so. Most of the global models increase the shear as the cyclone moves northward toward the mid-latitude westerlies. Based on these two factors, the NHC forecast calls for significant weakening during the next few days. In fact, if Simon reaches Baja California, it is likely to be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression. Simon is already turning and is now moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge that has been steering Simon is forecast to weaken and shift southward. This pattern will move Simon northward until the cyclone encounters the mid-latitude westerlies, and a recurvature toward Baja California will then begin in 48 hours. One large uncertainty is how fast Simon will move after recurvature. The GFS and the ECMWF are now in better agreement in accelerating the cyclone, but many of the other models are not quite so fast. The NHC forecast is not as fast as the GFS/ECMWF pair at this time, but I would not be surprised if a faster motion has to be indicated in the next forecast. The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring another heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 21.4N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 117.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 24.4N 117.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 25.2N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 27.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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