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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-10-02 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 283 WTPZ41 KNHC 022032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Sergio has intensified significantly today. The eye of the hurricane has become better defined, and is embedded in very cold convective cloud tops. Outer banding features are also well defined. Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the western and southern portions of the circulation, and a little restricted to the northeast. The advisory intensity is set, probably conservatively, to 100 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Only modest northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio over the next few days. That, along with warm waters and a very moist middle troposphere, should be conducive for further strengthening. The official forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance model suite. The system continues moving mostly westward, or 280/11 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous couple of advisory packages. A mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio should weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours as a broad trough drops in from the northwest. These changes in the steering flow should cause the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest by this evening or tonight, and to begin moving northwestward on Wednesday. The official track forecast is is very similar to the previous one and, again, follows the latest multi-model consensus. Some slight enlargements to the wind radii were made over the eastern semicircle of Sergio based on scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 11.2N 115.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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