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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-10-03 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 835 WTPZ41 KNHC 032045 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 Sergio's satellite presentation continues to look impressive this afternoon. Several mesovortices can be identified rotating within the eye. However, the eye is somewhat obscured by upper-level clouds and the eyewall edge is not clearly defined. Based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the advisory intensity estimate is held at 110 kt, which is the same as in the previous advisory. Sergio should remain in quite favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next day or two, and additional strengthening is expected through Thursday. By Friday, Sergio will be moving over slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures and through a drier mid-level air mass, which should initiate gradual weakening. Sergio is currently heading toward the northwest, or 305/8 kt. By Friday and Saturday, the storm is forecast to slow and turn west-northwestward to westward while a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the hurricane. The official track forecast lies close to the equally weighted dynamical model consensus, TVCN. It is of interest to note that a small disturbance currently located a few hundred n mi to the west-southwest of Sergio is expected to be drawn into the larger circulation of the hurricane overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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