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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-10-04 16:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 543 WTPZ41 KNHC 041444 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 Sergio remains a strong hurricane this morning, with subjective Dvorak estimates range from 5.5 (102 kt) to 6.5 (127 kt). While some slightly drier air has been ingested into the eyewall, cloud top temperatures have cooled recently and Sergio appears poised to once again close off this dry air channel. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 120 kt. The intensity forecast is mostly a continuation of the previous advisory, but is slightly lower after 24 hours to reflect a blend of HCCA and other consensus aids. Vertical wind shear from GFS/SHIPS is forecast to remain at or below approximately 10 kt through 48 hours before increasing to above 15 kt by Saturday. The primary limiter on Sergio's intensity appears to be SSTs which will drop off gradually, especially by the end of the forecast. Sergio is continuing to move northwestward around the mid-level ridge which extends into the Pacific off of Mexico. The initial motion is 320/8 kt. Objective track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a gradual turn toward the west tonight and Friday in response to a second ridge which builds in from the west. Guidance remains in decent agreement on Sergio then turning back northeastward by the end of the forecast period as this ridge lifts northward and a highly-amplified mid-level trough digs into western North America. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through day 4 with a small shift eastward thereafter to reflect a slightly earlier northeast turn in the guidance. This track philosophy is supported by essentially all of the ECMWF/GFS ensemble members as well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.0N 119.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Onderlinde/Cangialosi
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