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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 60
2019-09-08 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080233 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 60 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian made landfall near Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia several hours ago. Since then, the powerful cyclone has continued to move rapidly to the north-northeast and is now just east of Prince Edward Island. The wind field has expanded considerably, and the cyclone is producing tropical-storm-force winds over an extensive area of the Canadian Maritimes. The powerful cyclone is expected to continue with a large wind field, but gradual weakening is anticipated as forecast by most of the global models. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast at 23 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded within the fast extratropical westerly flow, this general track with a turn to the northeast is anticipated until dissipation in about 2 days. Track guidance is in very good agreement with this motion, and the NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provided guidance to prepare this forecast. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada overnight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in Nova Scotia and are forecast to occur in Newfoundland overnight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 46.3N 62.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0000Z 52.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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