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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 61
2019-09-08 10:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080840 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian passed very near the Magdalen Islands around 0600 UTC, and is now between the west coast of Newfoundland and Anticosti Island. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the wind field remains quite large, but the peak winds have decreased since yesterday. Therefore, the initial intensity has been set at 70 kt. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful storm through this afternoon, but the global models show steady weakening after the center moves northeast of Newfoundland tonight. The cyclone is moving north-northeastward or 025/23 kt. Dorian should continue north-northeastward today, then turn east- northeastward over the North Atlantic as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is essentially an update of the previous advisory. The post-tropical cyclone should should be absorbed by another extratropical low over the North Atlantic in 2 to 3 days. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in portions of eastern Nova Scotia and are spreading into western Newfoundland. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 48.5N 61.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1800Z 50.9N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0600Z 53.6N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1800Z 55.7N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z 57.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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