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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-06-23 10:18:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 504 WTNT44 KNHC 230817 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Deep convection has increased during the past several hours in the diurnal convective maximum, although there isn't much organization to the activity. The depression is situated beneath an upper-level low, and the system has a large radius-of-maximum winds, so it is still subtropical. The initial intensity is 30 kt, based on persistence from the earlier scatterometer data. While it is possible the depression could become a storm later today, rapidly cooling SSTs should cause the system to weaken on Wednesday, and open up into a trough on or before Thursday. The depression is moving northeastward at about 11 kt. There is good agreement in the track guidance that the system will continue moving in the same general direction with some acceleration during the next couple of days, embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterlies. The new track forecast has been nudged slightly to the north of the previous one, close to the NOAA corrected-consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 39.3N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 40.0N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 41.4N 59.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0600Z 45.3N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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