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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-07-14 18:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 330 WTNT42 KNHC 141649 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Special Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 The remnants of Beryl have persisted for the past several days, moving through the Bahamas and into the Atlantic between the eastern United States and Bermuda. During the last day or so, the remnants have interacted with an upper-level trough, which has resulted in the redevelopment of a well-defined circulation and organized convection near the center. Recent scatterometer data shows 35 kt winds northeast of the center, so advisories are re-initiated on Beryl. While the strongest winds and convection are relatively close to the center, the upper-level trough is likely contributing baroclinic energy to the system, and thus the regenerated Beryl is being called a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone. The initial motion is 035/10. Beryl is in relatively light southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the cyclone generally northeastward for the next two to three days. Some increase in forward speed may occur after 36 h as a mid-latitude cyclone approaches from the west. The forecast track is a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The forecast track takes Beryl over cold water north of the Gulf Stream in 24 h or less, and the guidance shows little additional intensification during that time. After that, the system should decay over cold water without any extratropical transition. The intensity forecast calls for the system to maintain a 35 kt intensity for 24 hr, followed by weakening and eventual dissipation just after 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1700Z 36.4N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 15/0000Z 37.3N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 15/1200Z 39.3N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 36H 16/0000Z 41.2N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H 16/1200Z 43.4N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 48.0N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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