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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-07-15 04:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 580 WTNT42 KNHC 150241 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 Shear and dry air appear to have taken a toll on Beryl this evening as deep convection associated with the system has dissipated. Beryl now consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory, which is based on a ST2.5 classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, but this could be generous. Beryl will be traversing marginally warm waters of the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, however the system appears to be ingesting a drier and more stable airmass from the northwest which is likely to prevent strengthening. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over much cooler water and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions, which is likely to cause the system to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast assumes that deep convection will re-develop in with the cyclone overnight, but if that does not occur Beryl could become a remnant low much sooner. The global models suggest that the remnant low will dissipate southwest of Newfoundland within 72 hours. Beryl has moved northward this evening, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is north-northeast or 025/11. The storm should move slowly north-northeastward to northeastward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, but there has been a significant reduction in the predicted forward speed of Beryl in the various dynamical models which has required an adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC track is slower than, and to the left of, the previous advisory, but is in good agreement with the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 38.1N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 39.6N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 41.1N 62.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 42.5N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 44.3N 58.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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