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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-05-10 22:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102036 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Hostile environmental conditions are taking a toll on Andres this afternoon. After a small area of convection persisted downshear of the cyclone's partially exposed low-level center earlier today, recent satellite images show rapidly warming cloud tops in the northeast quadrant with no signs of new convection anywhere near the center. Additionally, the low-level center now appears to be completely exposed. Although T2.5 18Z Dvorak classifications were received from SAB and TAFB, recent satellite trends and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates indicate the system has weakened since that time. Therefore, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt with this advisory, making Andres a tropical depression. Andres appeared to take a bit of a northward jog earlier today, but the current estimated motion is 330/06 kt. The weakening, shallow cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward and westward on Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north. The latest track forecast is close to the center of the guidance envelope, with just a slight adjustment to the right of track from the previous forecast. An upper-level ridge to the northwest of the cyclone is producing increasing vertical wind shear over Andres. This, combined with some drier mid-level air encroaching on the cyclone from the west, will continue weakening Andres through its dissipation by midweek. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest the system will struggle to generate any new convection overnight, and this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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