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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-05-11 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. Earlier today, strong west-southwesterly shear caused the thunderstorm activity to be stripped away from the center, and now Andres is nearly devoid of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak estimates. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning due to a combination of the continued strong shear and cooler SSTs along the forecast track. These hostile conditions should cause the remnant low to dissipate in a couple of days, which is shown by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. After moving northwestward during the past day or two, Andres has now turned sharply to the west due to the decoupling of the low- and mid-level centers. A continued westward motion at about 5 kt is expected until the cyclone dissipates. This forecast is located to the south of the previous one due to the change in the initial motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]
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