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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-06-02 16:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 021434 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 Satellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low pressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent organized convection near the center. Based on this, the system is again being designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on surface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity estimate of 25 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is 055/5. Bonnie is moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The track forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which are tightly clustered. The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters for the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during that time. After that, increasing shear and sea surface temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a remnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 35.1N 75.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 35.3N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 35.8N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 36.1N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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