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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-06-26 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of Boris is a little farther to the north than indicated in the previous advisory. The cyclone has a good low-level circulation, but the associated convection is currently disorganized due to a combination of southerly vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt as a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to cause slow weakening, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 60 h. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is a little uncertain, with the best estimate 315/6. Boris should turn west-northwestward during the next 12 h or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. Subsequently, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast follows the general direction of the previous one, but with some adjustments from the previous forecast due to the more northward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.5N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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