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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-06-27 04:40:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 232 WTPZ43 KNHC 270240 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 There was a brief burst of deep convection over the estimated center of Boris but, overall, the system is not very well organized. The cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast which is indicative of significant shear over the cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Boris will be moving through an environment of south-southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level low and associated trough near and to the west of 140W. This shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should cause gradual weakening and Boris will likely degenerate into a remnant low over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and similar to the latest DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Boris appears to have turned back toward a west-northwesterly heading and the motion estimate is 290/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward within the next 12 to 24 hours in response to a mid-level ridge to its north. Thereafter, the weakening low should begin to move a little south of west while embedded in the low-level trade wind flow. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the latest model consensus. Since Boris is about to cross 140W longitude, it will be moving into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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