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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-06-26 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261442 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 Boris is showing signs of being affected by vertical wind shear, with the strongest convection now being displaced a little to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a blend of subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB and the CIMSS satellite consensus. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven [ more ]
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