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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-06-17 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Data from a recent scatterometer pass indicated Carlotta still had a small circulation, but that it was quite weak with maximum winds near 25 kt. Persistent northerly shear continues to affect the depression. The system has lacked much organized deep convection for the past several hours and it is likely to degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Accordingly, the official forecast shows the system becoming post-tropical by early Monday. Based on the ASCAT observations, the center has been re-positioned a little to the southeast of the previous track. The initial motion estimate is now 300/6 kt. High pressure to the north of Carlotta should maintain a general west-northwestward track for the next day or two. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Consult products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.1N 101.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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