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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-06-18 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 Successive bursts of deep convection have been occurring since last evening, each one to the northwest of the previous one, which likely indicates that Carlotta still has a tight circulation and well-defined center. As such, the cyclone has not yet dissipated nor degenerated into a remnant low. Satellite classifications support maintaining a 25-kt initial intensity. Based on the propagation of convection, Carlotta's center appears to be nearing the coast of Mexico, and the initial motion is northwestward, or 305/4 kt. The depression is entering an area of low-level southerly to westerly winds, which should force its small circulation closer to land. Due to steep coastal mountains, however, the low-level center is unlikely to move inland and should dissipate near the coast. A 12-hour forecast point based on persistence is provided, but Carlotta could dissipate at any time. Each time a pulse of deep convection occurs, it is displaced south of the center due to 10-15 kt of north-northeasterly shear. The shear is not expected to decrease in the short term, which could allow Carlotta to continue as a tropical depression until the circulation is disrupted by the terrain of Mexico and dissipates. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.7N 102.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 103.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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