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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-06-18 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 The center of the depression, if it exists, remains very difficult to locate either with geostationary or microwave satellite imagery. In fact, the microwave images suggest that there is no longer a center. Unfortunately, the scatterometer swath missed the estimated location of Carlotta so that was of no help. Given these uncertainties, we will write at least one more advisory on this system, but the next one could be the last. The current intensity is held at 25 kt based on continuity and a Dvorak estimate from SAB. It is anticipated that the small system will dissipate by early tomorrow due to interaction with land. The initial motion is a highly uncertain 315/4 kt. There is little in the way of track guidance available, since most of the models are unable to analyze a center for the tropical cyclone. Carlotta or its remnant should continue to move northwestward to north-northwestward, in a weakness of the subtropical ridge, until dissipation. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.1N 103.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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