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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-08-23 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230234 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal continues to survive the harsh thermodynamic and shear environment of the central Atlantic by producing intermittent small bursts of deep convection well to the east of the exposed surface center. No changes to the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB this evening, and the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. Large-scale sinking air with low to mid-level associated relative humidities less than 40 percent along with increasing west-southwesterly vertical shear are expected to weaken Chantal to a remnant low by Saturday, and dissipate in less than 3 days. The initial motion is estimated to be southeastward, or 135/6 kt, around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The global and ensemble guidance continue to show an anti-cyclonic motion at a slower forward speed before the system dissipates over the weekend. The new NHC forecast follows suit and is based on a compromise of the NOAA HCCA model and the simple TVCA multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 37.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 37.1N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 35.6N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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