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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-06-08 10:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080836 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Radar and surface observations indicate that Cristobal has continued to weaken as it moves farther inland. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt, with these winds occuring over portions of the coastline and coastal waters from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. The surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is near 994 mb. While the cyclone is weakening, satellite and radar data show a large area of convective bands continuing in the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 330/9. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward today as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight around the east side of the ridge, and then it should turn northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. There is little change to the previous forecast track except at 96 h, where the new forecast is a bit south of the previous forecast. The cyclone should continue to gradually weaken for the next 36-48 h as it moves farther inland. After that time, some re-intensification is expected as Cristobal becomes involved with mid-latitude cyclogenesis over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the intensity forecast will call for the system to be a 35-kt extratropical low by 60 h. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate inside the envelope of another extratropical low by 120 h. It should be noted that Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will combine to possibly cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Although Cristobal has weakened, life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast today. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Although the center of Cristobal has moved inland, there remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night through Tuesday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. 3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning in the coastal areas from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. In addition, the combination of Cristobal and a mid-latitude cyclone may cause gust winds by midweek over portions of the Midwest and Great lakes regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.0N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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