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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2013-07-05 04:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050246 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DALILA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF CONVECTION. DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR...AND MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...AS DALILA MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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