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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 29
2013-07-06 22:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062037 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 DALILA IS ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THERE IS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS BARELY ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA HAVE EITHER BEEN STEADY OR GRADUALLY COMING DOWN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...AND ARE MORE LIKE RANDOM PUFFS OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CHARACTERISTIC OF A REMNANT LOW. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...DALILA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. THE INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT... AND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS PROBABLE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR FROM HURRICANE ERICK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY. DALILA SHOULD BEGIN TO BE DRAWN EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE MUCH LARGER ERICK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL A BIT EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 17.1N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 17.3N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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