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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-07-24 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241431 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has continued to decrease in coverage this morning, however, there is still a broken band of convection over the southeastern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. Dalila will be moving over SSTs of 23-24 deg C later today, and into a dry and more stable airmass. This should result in weakening, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. It appears that Dalila has taken a northward jog this morning, but the longer-term motion estimate is 320/6 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Dalila should continue moving northwestward today, then turn west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position, however, the updated official forecast is still near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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