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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-07-24 22:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 517 WTPZ45 KNHC 242032 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Dalila has continued to wane since the previous advisory, and the system has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a small area of colder cloud tops over the eastern semicircle. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 25 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. Dalila will continue to move over progressively cooler waters, and into a drier and more stable air mass during the next day or two. This should result in additional weakening, and Dalila is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Thursday. Dalila is still moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. As the cyclone weakens and becomes an increasingly vertically shallow system, it is forecast to turn west-northwestward within the low-level easterly flow. The models are in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast track is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.7N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 21.9N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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