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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-07-25 04:40:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250240 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Dalila is hanging on as a tropical depression. After having little deep convection throughout the day, a new area of thunderstorms has formed during the past several hours over the northeastern quadrant, which is over slightly warmer water. The remainder of the circulation consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and the 00Z Dvorak classification from TAFB. Dalila is not expected to hold on much longer as a tropical cyclone, as progressively cooler waters and stable air should cause the deep convection to dissipate soon. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual weakening, and ultimately dissipation in 2 to 3 days. The center of the depression has jogged to the north, likely due to the development of the convection on its northeast side. Smoothing through this recent jog yields a motion of 325/6. As the convection dies, the weak cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and then the west within the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, based on the more northward initial position, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 21.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.7N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 22.2N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 22.8N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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