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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-07-25 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250835 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Dalila is still technically a tropical cyclone based on the development of new convection within 70-75 nmi northeast of the center, which barely results in a Dvorak current intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt. In addition, a 0539Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated a few 25-kt vectors were present in the northern semicircle. Therefore, Dalila remains a 25-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Having said that, recent satellite trends indicate that the convection is beginning to separate and move away from the low-level center due to northwesterly vertical wind shear, and this negative trend should continue, resulting in Dalila degenerating into a remnant low pressure system later today while the system moves over 24 deg C water. Dissipation of the cyclone is expected in 48-72 hours. Dalila is moving slowly northwestward or 315/05 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a westward motion on Friday and Saturday, which is expected to continue until dissipation occurs. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 21.6N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.0N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 23.1N 125.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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