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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-07-24 10:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240836 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Dalila has maintained a robust low-level circulation based on recent scatterometer wind data, but those data also indicate that Dalila's peak winds had decreased to 27-30 kt despite a sharp increase in deep convection near and southeast of the center. UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates suggest a higher intensity of 35-44 kt. However, it appears that the cooler water that the cyclone is moving over has stabilized the boundary layer, which is not allowing the normal downward mixing of stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. Given the lower ASCAT wind data, Dalila has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The initial motion estimate is 315/05 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track and intensity forecast philosophies. Dalila is expected to move northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Thursday when the weakening cyclone becomes more shallow and comes under the influence of easterly trade wind flow. The cyclone is now moving over 25 deg C sea-surface temperatures, with cooler water and more stable air still ahead of Dalila. As a result, convection is expected to gradually wane during the next 24 hours, accompanied by a steady spin down of the vortex, which should result in the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning, if not sooner. The NHC track and intensity forecasts closely follow the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, respectively. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 19.8N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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