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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-01 04:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010244 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Deep convection is becoming increasingly dislocated from the center of the tropical depression because of the strong westerly vertical shear. Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB continue to drop as the convection becomes less organized. The initial intensity remains 25 kt. The tropical depression should not be long for this world. Last- light visible imagery suggests that the center may be becoming diffuse. The deep convection may soon either dissipate or be located far from the center. The system may shortly become entangled in a frontal boundary. If the center is no longer well defined, if there is no associated organized deep convection, or if the cyclone becomes frontal, then the system will no longer be a tropical cyclone. One or more of these options should occur within about a day, if not sooner. In about two days, the post-tropical cyclone is likely to be absorbed in a separate extratropical low. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast at about 14 kt, as it is being swept up by the southwesterlies ahead of a mid-latitude shortwave trough. The system should accelerate in the same direction until dissipation. The track is based upon the consensus of the reliable global models and is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 36.7N 70.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 38.2N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 40.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/1200Z 43.0N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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