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Tropical Depression ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-02 04:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020252 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Elida remains a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of any deep convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, close to a blend of the latest T/CI numbers from TAFB. Strong northwesterly shear over Elida should continue to weaken the system. Model guidance is in good agreement on this solution, and the new NHC intensity prediction is very close to the previous one. The only significant change is to show remnant low status within 24 hours. Given the lack of convection, however, Elida could become a remnant low even sooner than forecast. Elida is moving a little faster toward the southeast this evening - roughly 135/3 - an unusual motion for an eastern Pacific cyclone in July. The depression or its remnants will likely move southward by late tomorrow, then westward by Thursday due to a building low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. Model guidance has shifted southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast is moved in that direction. The small cyclone should degenerate into a trough in 3-4 days, which is in line with the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 103.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.7N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 16.4N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 103.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 16.1N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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