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Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-07-09 04:53:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090253 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2239 UTC SSM/I IMAGE SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERICK TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...AND ERICK IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE ERICK IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AND AN EVEN MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF ERICK IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER ERICK ON A SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECELERATE PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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