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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-07-26 22:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 805 WTPZ43 KNHC 262045 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 A recent ASCAT pass indicated that a very small 30-kt circulation has developed in association with the disturbance that the NHC has been tracking southwest of Baja California Sur during the past several days. On this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. However, the satellite presentation is not very well organized at this time, and Dvorak T-numbers are still low. Given the current environment of low shear and warm ocean, gradual strengthening is anticipated. However, global models indicate that the shear will markedly increase beyond 48 hours, and this wind pattern should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is a blend of HCCA and the simple intensity consensus. The depression is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 14 kt around the periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Since the ridge is forecast to persist, no significant change in the steering flow is anticipated. The cyclone should then continue on the same track for the next several days, although by the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become a westward moving remnant low. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.2N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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