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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-03 17:12:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031512 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 First light visible satellite images indicate that the disturbance over the open eastern Pacific has developed a well-defined center just west of an area of concentrated deep convection. Based on this, advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Eight-E. An earlier scatterometer pass measured winds of about 30 kt, and this is the basis for the initial intensity. Vertical shear of 20-25 kt that is currently displacing convection off to the east of the low-level center is forecast to continue for the next few days as the system moves under the base of a mid- to upper-level trough. This shear is expected to prevent any strengthening of the cyclone in the near term. In addition to the shear, the depression will move into a drier airmass and begin to move over more marginal SSTs in about 24 hours. This should result in weakening and the depression is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. Although the depression is currently moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt, all of the global models forecast that it will turn westward later today, steered primarily by low-level easterly winds. The cyclone should then continue westward for the next day or two until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 14.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.4N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 15.9N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven/Zelinsky
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