je.st
news
Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-20 16:52:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 034 WTPZ43 KNHC 201452 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Satellite imagery and overnight scatterometer data indicate that the low pressure area to the southeast of Tropical Depression Seven-E has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The initial intensity is 30 kt based on the scatterometer data and a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 240/6, with the depression being steered by a portion of the subtropical ridge building between it and Tropical Depression Seven-E. This motion should persist with some increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly. This should be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest after 60h. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance and close to the various consensus models. The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next several days. The intensity guidance calls for steady strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the forecast, so it is possible that the cyclone will strengthen more than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 13.7N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 12.4N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 11.8N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 11.7N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 11.9N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 12.7N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 14.5N 139.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 16.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||