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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-07-27 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 015 WTPZ43 KNHC 270231 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 The cloud pattern of the depression features a small area of central convection with cloud tops of -70 to -80C and a larger convective band to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the previous ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak classification from SAB. The cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next 36 hours or so while it moves through an environment of light-to-moderate westerly shear and SSTs of 27-28C. After that time the shear is forecast to increase and reach 30-40 kt by late in the forecast period. The combination of the shear and cooling SSTs should result in weakening. The global models show the low and mid-level circulations decoupling by 96 hours, which should result in the cyclone becoming a remnant low. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 based on the latest geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. The track forecast remains unchanged, as the cyclone will be steered westward to west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After the cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low late in the period, a westward motion is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and is a bit south of the multi-model consensus aids and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.8N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 14.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 14.5N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 15.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 15.7N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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