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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-20 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 080 WTPZ43 KNHC 202033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Satellite imagery indciates that Tropical Depression Eight-E is getting better organized, with the formation of a small central dense overcast and banding features outside of the central convection. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 30 kt from SAB, and recent scatterometer data indciate winds near 30 kt in the northwester quadrant. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt. The initial motion is 235/6, with the depression still being steered by a portion of the subtropical ridge building between it and Tropical Depression Seven-E. This motion should persist with some increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly. This should be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest between 48-60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is again in the middle of the guidance and close to the various consensus models. The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next several days. The intensity guidance calls for steady strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the forecast, and given the seemingly-favorable environment it would not be a surprise if the cyclone strengthened more than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 13.5N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 12.1N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 11.9N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 11.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 12.4N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 13.4N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 15.0N 140.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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