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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-08 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 506 WTPZ43 KNHC 081436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 The area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for several days has enough organized deep convection this morning to be classified as a tropical depression. Some northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, with the apparent center on the northeastern side of a growing area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast while the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and weakening should begin. The NHC forecast is close to, but a little above, the model consensus near peak intensity to account for the low bias the model guidance has had for many eastern Pacific storms this year. An uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/10. All of the model guidance turn the cyclone northwestward by tomorrow as the cyclone rounds the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated in a few days due to the system coming under the influence of the primary eastern Pacific subtropical ridge. For a first advisory, the model guidance isn't in terrible disagreement, so the NHC prediction will lie near close to the various consensus and corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.1N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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