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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-08 22:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 130 WTPZ43 KNHC 082051 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 GOES-16 visible imagery shows the center of the depression on the edge of a convective mass, with a large part of the eastern part of the circulation exposed due to shear. Dvorak estimates are a little higher than the last advisory, but the evidence is not strong enough yet to upgrade the system to a tropical storm, so the winds will stay 30 kt. Gradual strengthening is anticipated while the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and weakening should begin. The biggest change is that the model guidance is considerably lower in this cycle, perhaps due to easterly shear persisting for a bit longer. Only a small decrease was made to the intensity forecast at long range, but later advisories could be lower if model trends continue. Visible imagery also helped reposition the depression about a degree west of the last advisory. Ironically, the initial motion estimate is unchanged, still 290/10 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should steer the system northwestward for the next day or so, then the dominant eastern Pacific subtropical ridge is forecast to turn the system back toward the west-northwest. Numerical guidance is a fair distance west of the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend, resulting in a large westward adjustment to the NHC forecast after absorbing the initial position change. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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