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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-09 04:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 180 WTPZ43 KNHC 090246 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 The depression has changed little during the past several hours. The system remains sheared with the center located near the eastern edge of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear. The satellite intensity estimates range between 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression should have some opportunity to strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist environment. However, the global models suggest that the shear may not let up much during that time period, so only slow strengthening is anticipated. Beyond a few days, the water temperatures beneath the system are forecast to fall below 26 deg C. These unfavorable oceanic conditions and a drier and more stable airmass should cause a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but still lies at the high end of the model guidance. The depression is still moving westward but at a slower pace than before. The models all show the system turning northwestward overnight and maintaining that motion during the next few days as it is steered by a weakening mid-level ridge. Once the system moves over cooler waters and becomes shallow, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast as the cyclone is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track is a little north of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.1N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 19.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.7N 125.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 23.7N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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