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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-08-04 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 041443 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 confirms that the low pressure area located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has a well-defined low-level center. Deep convection has persisted since yesterday, mainly in the western portion of the circulation, and Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are a consensus 1.5. Based on these factors, the system has been classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The depression is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. The shear is not expected to relax during the next few days, and this should keep the system weak. In fact, I currently have no guidance that suggests that the system will ever become a tropical storm. The intensity forecast therefore shows no change in intensity until the system becomes post-tropical in a couple of days due to the persistent shear and a drier environment. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at 13 kt, though the initial speed is somewhat uncertain since the center has only recently become well defined. Since the cyclone is forecast to remain weak, it should be steered primarily by the low- to mid-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge. The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement that this will keep the depression moving in a near straight-line heading for the next day or two. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone should slow down substantially while it dissipates early next week. The track forecast is very close to the model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.7N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 18.3N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 19.2N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 20.7N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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