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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center. Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours. These cooler waters combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that. The global models show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days. The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only recently become well defined, but my best guess is north-northwestward at 10 kt. A strong mid-level ridge situated over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next couple of days. After that time, when the system is likely a shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is is steered by the low-level flow. The track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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