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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-07 16:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071451 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Last night's METOP-A/B scatterometer overpasses indicated that the area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico had become a little better defined, and since that time, the system has developed sufficient organized convection to be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt and is in agreement with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Modest northeasterly shear, warm sea surface temperatures and a moist surrounding low- to mid-level environment support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The Statistical SHIPS (GFS/ECMWF), and the HCCA/IVCN multi-model intensity aids, all show that the cyclone will become a hurricane in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast resembles the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, and is just below the Decay SHIPS guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. The depression is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching westward over the subtropical eastern Pacific from high pressure located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A general westward motion with a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, a turn toward the west-northwest to northwest is expected due to a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The official forecast is based on the TVCN multi-model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF global models solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.9N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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